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Although, in principle, the authors’ framework could justify giving a substantial role to monetary policy in fostering financial stability, they generally find that, when costs and benefits are fully taken into account, there is little case for doing so.In their baseline analysis, they find that incorporating financial stability concerns might justify the Fed holding the short-term interest rate 3 basis points higher than it otherwise would be, a tiny amount (a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point).Key points in this Outlook: Five years after the 2007–08 financial crisis, as underscored by the Federal Reserve’s “surprise” September 18 no-tapering decision and the confusion that has followed it, an important basic question has emerged: what now for monetary policy?More specifically, what should be the Fed’s goals, how should they be achieved, and how much of the Fed’s policymaking machinery should be revealed to the public?“That sounds hawkish.”“No, that sounds dovish.”“But the stock market says it’s hawkish.”Just what the heck is this nonsense about birds, and why do Wall Street types love to throw these terms around?

The intuition is that, based on historical relationships, higher rates do not much reduce the already low probability of a financial crisis in the future, but they have considerable costs in terms of higher unemployment and dangerously low inflation in the near- to intermediate terms.That's why many central banks have an inflation target of around 2 percent. People buy too much now to avoid paying higher prices later.This causes businesses to produce more to take advantage of higher demand.To check the robustness of the results, the authors consider what happens if the likelihood of a crisis is much more sensitive (for stats geeks: two standard deviations more sensitive) to monetary policy than is consistent with historical data.They find that, in this case, setting the short-term interest rate 25 to 45 basis points higher than it would otherwise be could be justified on cost-benefit grounds.

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